2021 Mountain West Championship Game odds: San Diego State vs. Utah State picks, predictions from proven model – CBSSports.com

The 19th-ranked San Diego State Aztecs will try to continue their dominance of the Utah State Aggies when they host the 2021 Mountain West Championship Game on Saturday. The Aztecs (11-1) have won 13 of the 15 all-time meetings, including three of the four since Utah State (9-3) joined the conference. SDSU has won the conference title three times, most recently in 2016, and has only a loss to Fresno State this season. This is the Aggies’ first trip to the Mountain West Championship Game since it lost to Fresno State in 2013, its first year in the MWC. It will be a showdown between the Aggies’ elite passing offense against the Aztecs’ stingy defense.

Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. ET in Carson, Calif. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Aztecs as the six-point favorites in its latest Utah State vs. San Diego State odds and has the over-under for total points set at 49.5. Before locking in any San Diego State vs. Utah State picks or college football predictions, you need to see what the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of almost $3,700 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It also enters Championship Week 2021 on a 42-28 run on all top-rated college football side picks. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has locked in on Utah State vs. San Diego State and just released its coveted picks and CFB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several CFB odds and betting trends for San Diego State vs. Utah State:  

  • Utah State vs. San Diego State spread: Aztecs -6 
  • Utah State vs. San Diego State over-under: 49.5 points 
  • Utah State vs. San Diego State money line: Aggies +190, Aztecs -230
  • USU: It is 4-1 ATS in its past five vs. ranked teams 
  • SDSU: It is 7-6-1 ATS in its last 14 MWC games

Featured Game | San Diego State Aztecs vs. Utah State Aggies

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Why the Aztecs can cover

SDSU has scored at least 38 points in winning three of the last four meetings, with the loss a 23-17 setback in 2019. The defense has been one of the nation’s best, ranking second against the run (78.7 yards per game) and ninth in scoring (17.3 points). Aggies QB Logan Bonner could be in for a long night, as end Cameron Thomas has 10.5 sacks and leads the nation with 31 QB hits. Jonah Tavai has 6.5 sacks, and SDSU has 20 takeaways. Patrick McMorris and Trenton Thompson both have three picks and Andrew Aleki has returned two for TDs.

The Aztecs rallied to score 24 consecutive points to beat Boise State 27-16 last Friday. Backup QB Jordon Brookshire relieved banged-up starter Lucas Johnson and threw for 192 yards and rushed for 46 in the win, but the situation is unclear heading into this matchup. SDSU typically relies more on the run, averaging almost 178 per game on the ground (50th in FBS), so senior Greg Bell should see plenty of work. He has 949 rushing yards and eight TDs, and three other running backs average at least 4.3 yards per carry. The Aztecs are 7-4 ATS in home games over the past two seasons.     

Why the Aggies can cover

Utah State is 8-4 ATS this season, and it has one of the nation’s top passing attacks, led by Logan Bonner. The Arkansas State transfer has 3,242 passing yards ( 14.2 per completion, T-14 in FBS), and 32 passing TDs (T-10th). Receivers Deven Thompkins and Derek Wright make Bonner’s job a lot easier with their big-play ability. Thompkins averages 17.7 yards per catch and has a team-high 1,543 yards, while Wright averages 17.9 and has 10 TDs on 39 receptions. SDSU’s weakness is its pass defense, which ranks 80th (235.7 yards per game).  

RBs Calvin Tyler Jr. and Elelyon Noa have combined for 1,269 rushing yards and nine TDs. Utah State converts on third down 45 percent of the time, the best mark in the conference, and averages 24 first downs per game, second in the MWC. The Aggies defense allows 26 points per game but has 19 takeaways, with Shaq Bond and Ajani Carter getting three interceptions apiece. Linebacker Justin Rice also has three and is a force in the middle, posting 101 tackles. The Aggies are 3-0 ATS as a road underdog and 5-1 ATS overall away from home this season. 

How to make Utah State vs. San Diego State picks

The model is projecting the game to go under on the total, suggesting the teams will combine for 46 points. It has also has generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in nearly 60 percent of simulations. You can only get the model’s San Diego State vs. Utah State pick at SportsLine

So who wins Saturday’s Mountain West Championship Game? And which side of the spread is hitting almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Utah State vs. San Diego State spread to back Saturday, all from the advanced model on a 42-28 run on its top-rated college football picks, and find out.